Illusion of Validity Quiz

This quiz explores your susceptibility to the illusion of validity, a cognitive bias where confidence in judgments is overestimated due to perceived reliability.

Question 1 of 7Version: 1.0

You are at the horse races, relying on limited data from previous races to predict the next winner. How do you proceed?

Place a high bet on the horse with the best track record, confident of your choice.

Choose a horse based on a mix of data and intuition.

Consider the data but recognize the unpredictability and place a small bet.

Refrain from betting since the data might not be sufficient.