Projection bias

Self Assessment

Projection bias is a cognitive bias that describes the human tendency to overestimate the degree to which their future preferences and tastes will align with their current preferences and tastes. This bias is a type of misforecasting that occurs when individuals assume that their emotional states and desires will remain unchanged over time.

How it works

Projection bias operates by causing individuals to make decisions based on their current emotional and psychological states, projecting these states into the future. When thinking about future circumstances, people tend to assume that their current desires and challenges will continue to influence them in the same way, leading to a misalignment between predicted and actual future experiences.

Examples

  • People on a diet may buy more food than they need because they project their current hunger into the future, failing to account for a decrease in appetite.
  • A person might invest in a long-term gym membership while motivated, assuming they will maintain that same level of enthusiasm for exercise in the coming months, only to lose interest later.
  • Newly formed couples may make binding commitments like buying a house together, due to a projection bias wherein they underestimate how their feelings might change over time.

Consequences

The primary consequence of projection bias is poor decision-making that leads to regret and suboptimal outcomes. In economics, this can manifest in financial misjudgments, such as overestimating willingness to pay for future events. In personal life, it can lead to choices that are incongruent with one’s eventual preferences, leading to dissatisfaction.

Counteracting

To counteract projection bias, individuals can practice mindfulness by acknowledging the potential for changes in their emotional states and preferences. Engaging in scenario planning, where multiple future scenarios are considered, or consulting with neutral third-party advisors can also mitigate the impact of this bias. Additionally, reflecting on past changes in preferences can provide perspective on the fluid nature of desires over time.

Critiques

While projection bias is widely acknowledged, its degree of impact varies among individuals. Some critics argue that it oversimplifies human behavior by assuming emotional states are static rather than dynamic. Critics also suggest it lacks consideration of individual differences in emotional regulation and adaptation.

Fields of Impact

Economics & Finance
UX
Advertising & Marketing
Political Science & Public Policy
AI
Psychology & Social Science

Also known as

Temporal projection bias
Future prediction error
Temporal consistency bias

Relevant Research

  • Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility

    Loewenstein, G., O'Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. (2003)

    Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1209-1248

  • The Effect of Purchase Quantity and Timing on Variety-Seeking Behavior

    Simonson, I. (1990)

    Journal of Marketing Research, 27(2), 150-162

  • Prospection: Experiencing the Future

    Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2007)

    Science, 317(5843), 1351-1354

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